Master the "Market Forecast." Learn how IV reflects the market's expectation of future price swings.
Implied Volatility is a metric that captures the market's expectation of the magnitude of future price movements for an underlying asset. Unlike Historical Volatility (which looks at what *did* happen), Implied Volatility looks at what the market thinks will happen.
Think of IV as a percentage. If a stock has an IV of 20%, the market is pricing in a 20% expected move over the next year. Higher IV means the market expects larger price swings, leading to more expensive options.
A common mistake is thinking an option is "cheap" because its premium is ₹10. If the stock is in a period of extreme calm (Low IV), that ₹10 might actually be very expensive relative to the risk. Conversely, an option costing ₹50 might be "cheap" if the stock is in a period of extreme anticipated turbulence (High IV).
Rule of Thumb: Always check the "IV Rank" or "IV Percentile" in your trading platform. This tells you if current volatility is high or low compared to the last 12 months.